The Trade Deadline: The Data on Prospects (Part I)

After writing a column on the trade deadline and prospects, I decided to go much further in depth on the issue and will be repackaging it as multi-part article. First comes the data from the 2007 Baseball Prospectus Top 100 Prospects list. Below is how I classified each player on the list.

Key:
Classification   (Number of players in this classification  in…) Top 25 / Top 50 / Top 100
The numbers next to the names refers to the rank of the prospect on the list. The last number is their age at the time of publication of the list.

Stars 6 / 8 / 10

The elite players in the game who would be seen as franchise cornerstones.

6. Tim Lincecum, RHP, Giants, 23
10. Evan Longoria, 3B, Devil Rays, 21
12. Ryan Braun, 3B, Brewers, 23
15. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pirates, 20
16. Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Dodgers, 19
24. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Rockies, 22
29. Justin Upton, OF, Diamondbacks, 19
48. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Red Sox, 23
53. Joey Votto, 1B, Reds, 23
106. Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Red Sox, 23

All-Stars 6 / 10 / 14

Good players who would be considered above average at their position. Mid-rotation starters, elite relievers, 20 home run hitters, often valuable as defenders as well.

1. Alex Gordon, 3B, Royals, 23
8. Chris Young, OF, Diamondbacks, 23
9. Jay Bruce, OF, Reds, 20
13. Matt Garza, RHP, Twins, 23
14. Yovani Gallardo, RHP, Brewers, 21
21. Billy Butler, OF, Royals, 21
31. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Diamondbacks, 21
44. Adam Jones, OF, Mariners, 21
47. Hunter Pence, OF, Astros, 24
50. Colby Rasmus, OF, Cardinals, 20
76. Miguel Montero, C, Diamondbacks, 23
98. Neftali Feliz, RHP, Braves, 19
103. Tyler Clippard, RHP, Yankees, 22
110. Neil Walker, C, Pirates, 21

Average 4 / 8 / 23

Players who wouldn’t be considered for a five-year deal in free agency. Might go to one All-Star game in a good season, but won’t be there again. May have had good seasons before, but are average or struggling in most seasons. Some players may just not have reached their ceiling yet.

2. Philip Hughes, RHP, Yankees, 21
3. Delmon Young, OF, Devil Rays, 21
7. Cameron Maybin, OF, Tigers, 20
25. Jeff Niemann, RHP, Devil Rays, 24
39. Dexter Fowler, OF, Rockies, 21
41. Clay Buchholz, RHP, Red Sox, 22
43. Adam Lind, OF, Blue Jays, 23
45. Jacob McGee, LHP, Devil Rays, 20
51. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C, Braves, 22
52. Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B, Padres, 25
54. James Loney, 1B/OF, Dodgers, 23
57. Troy Patton, LHP, Astros, 21
58. John Danks, LHP, White Sox, 22
66. Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP, Rockies, 23
69. Ryan Sweeney, OF, White Sox, 22
73. Jonathan Sanchez, LHP, Giants, 24
74. Brandon Morrow, RHP, Mariners, 22
77. Wade Davis, RHP, Devil Rays, 21
78. Erick Aybar, SS, Angels, 23
79. Matt Harrison, RHP, Braves, 21
84. Kevin Slowey, RHP, Twins, 23
91. Alberto Callaspo, 2B, Diamondbacks, 24
108. Drew Stubbs, OF, Reds, 22

Below Average 4  /12 / 37

Players who are up and down guys who often find work on the bench or bullpen. When pressed into every-day duty, they struggle, but have a major league career.

4. Homer Bailey, RHP, Reds, 21
11. Reid Brignac, SS, Devil Rays, 21
22. Jose Tabata, OF, Yankees, 18
23. Luke Hochevar, RHP, Royals, 23
26. Philip Humber, RHP, Mets, 24
30. Mike Pelfrey, RHP, Mets, 23
32. Scott Elbert, LHP, Dodgers, 21
34. Carlos Gomez, OF, Mets, 21
33. Franklin Morales, LHP, Rockies, 21
37. Carlos Carrasco, RHP, Phillies, 20
42. Felix Pie, OF, Cubs, 22
49. Chris Iannetta, C, Rockies, 24
56. Joba Chamberlain, RHP, Yankees, 21
59. Jeff Clement, C, Mariners, 24
60. Trevor Crowe, OF, Indians, 23
61. Edinson Volquez, RHP, Rangers, 23
62. Daric Barton, 1B, Athletics, 21
63. Sean West, RHP, Marlins, 21
67. Travis Buck, OF, Athletics, 23
70. Ian Stewart, 3B, Rockies, 22
71. Christopher Volstad, RHP, Marlins, 20
72. Josh Fields, 3B, White Sox, 24
75. William Inman, RHP, Brewers, 20
80. Brent Lillibridge, SS, Braves, 23
81. Glen Perkins, LHP, Twins, 24
82. Sean Gallagher, RHP, Cubs, 21
83. Brad Lincoln, RHP, Pirates, 22
85. Sean Rodriguez, SS, Angels, 22
86. Michael Bowden, RHP, Red Sox, 20
90. Chris Parmelee, OF, Twins, 19
96. Pedro Beato, RHP, Orioles, 20
99. Kyle Drabek, RHP, Phillies, 19
100. Elijah Dukes, OF, Devil Rays, 23
102. Alexi Casilla, INF, Twins, 22
105. Eric Patterson, 2B, Cubs, 24
107. Radhames Liz, RHP, Orioles, 24
108. Kurt Suzuki, C, Athletics, 23

Wash Out 5 / 10 / 21

Players who never reached the major leagues or struggled mightily from day 1. Limited MLB experience. Bad bench players. Multiple organizations tried to reclaim them and failed.

5. Brandon Wood, SS, Angels, 22
17. Andrew Miller, LHP, Tigers, 22
18. Fernando Martinez, OF, Mets, 18
19. Adam Miller, RHP, Indians, 22
20. Andy LaRoche, 3B, Dodgers, 23
27. Brandon Erbe, RHP, Orioles, 19
35. Chuck Lofgren, LHP, Indians, 22
36. Donald Veal, LHP, Cubs, 22
38. Eric Hurley, RHP, Rangers, 21
46. Jason Hirsh, RHP, Rockies, 25
55. Billy Rowell, 3B, Orioles, 18
64. Angel Villalona, 3B, Giants, 16
65. Humberto Sanchez, RHP, Yankees, 24
68. Ryan Tucker, RHP, Marlins, 20
89. Cesar Carillo, RHP, Padres, 23
93. Christopher Marrero, OF, Nationals, 18
94. Brett Sinkbeil, RHP, Marlins, 22
95. Cedric Hunter, OF, Padres, 19
97. Javier Herrera, OF, Athletics, 22
101. Brian Barton, OF, Indians, 25
104. Chris Lubanski, OF, Royals, 22

Other/Incomplete 0 / 2 / 5

Adenhart was killed in a car accident after his MLB debut. The rest have been in the major leagues, but I don’t feel confident classifying them as they have yet to prove themselves as non-prospects or bench players.

28. Nick Adenhart, RHP, Angels, 21
40. Travis Snider, OF, Blue Jays, 19
87. Jeremy Jeffress, RHP, Brewers, 19
88. Hank Conger, C, Angels, 19
92. Dellin Betances, RHP, Yankees, 19

Here’s a breakdown of the players by percentages.

 

STAR

A-S

AVG

-AVG

WASH

Top 25

24%

24%

16%

16%

20%

Top 50

16%

20%

16%

24%

20%

Top 110

9.1%

12.7%

20.9%

33.6%

19.1%

Top 26-50

8%

16%

16%

32%

20%

Top 51-110

3.3%

6.6%

25%

41.6%

18.3%

So what does this tell us? We’ll see in the next column.

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